The newest Research by ZUBR Derivatives Exchange published on June 29 that private investor participation is increasing despite the longstanding story that an institutional takeover would be required to raise crypto prices.
Since the recent halving is nothing more than a distant memory and Bitcoin (BTC) price is in the $ 9,100 range, the current price movement is far from the increase that many retail and institutional investors expected after the halving.
Despite the weak price development, a variety of bullish factors such as record growth in the number of bitcoin whales, a new all-time high in the number of wallet addresses with less than 1 BTC, the record outflow of BTC from exchanges and bitcoins have recently achieved the third best performance in the second quarter shows a remarkable growth in investor participation with the Top digital asset.
In addition, the growing bitcoin demand from Grayscale Investments, Square and other companies suggests that demand comes from both institutional investors and retailers.
Total number of BTC in exact number addresses (1-10 BTC). Source: chain analysis
When collecting data from the chain analysis, ZUBR found that wallet addresses with 1 to 10 Bitcoin had risen to over 500,000 in April 2020 and that “these addresses have grown every month since the bear market started in 2018 after the Bitcoin price peaked would have . ”
According to ZUBR:
"By the next era of rewards in 2024, retail could potentially consume more than 50% of the physical supply."
In 2020 there was a lot of discussion about the perceived correlation between stock markets and Bitcoin. When the markets recovered in March 2020, risky assets like Bitcoin quickly followed.
Typically, a sharp drop in value, such as the 50% drop in Bitcoin prices that occurred on March 13, would dampen demand, along with the stock market downturn. However, data from ZUBR show the opposite.
Even when Bitcoin price fell more than 50% on Black Thursday, retail investor demand remained strong and there was no discernible decrease in Bitcoin volume in retail wallet addresses.
BTC increase / decrease in exact addresses from month to month (1-10). Source: chain analysis
900 bitcoins are currently being mined every day, and this number is expected to decrease to 450 by the next cut in 2024. ZUBR predicts that by 2024, halving retail demand could exceed an average of 250 BTC a day or half of the new daily supply available.
Bitcoin retail demand estimates versus supply. Source: Chain analysis, ZUBR
In addition, this retail demand could actually exceed ZUBR's estimate, as its data focused only on wallet addresses with integers rather than including accounts with broken BTC holdings.
While it is difficult to predict future Bitcoin price developments, it is clear that retail investors are not being squeezed out of the sector by the influx of institutional funds.
If the forecasts from ZUBR and Chainalysis come into effect, smaller investors will actually play a greater role in Bitcoin's network and value dynamics by 2024.