There’s a 77% Chance Bitcoin Rallies Out of Its Range: Historical Analysis

The biggest question for Bitcoin investors is whether the area that the cryptocurrency is in is breaking up or down.

For nearly two months, the leading cryptocurrency has been trading in a narrow range of $ 1,000 to $ 2,000 under the key resistance of $ 10,500. The following graphic illustrates this well: It shows that any attempt to break above or below the range is rejected, causing BTC to converge in a price region.

Graph of Bitcoin price consolidation from in the past almost two months

The price movement was so "boring" that analysts have seen volatility indicators tighten to levels that have not been reached since the March crash.

The market seems rather undecided: there are both passionate bulls and bears on social media platforms, while futures market funding rates are trying to get close to around 0.00%.

However, according to a data analyst, there is a high probability that Bitcoin will break higher due to a historical precedent.

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Bitcoin has a high chance of breaking higher, history suggests

Although price developments have been considered boring by most traders in the past six to seven weeks, it's not uncommon for Bitcoin to consolidate as much as before.

A data analyst divided The following table shows on June 17th that “This is the 10th occurrence of in the last two years $ btcusd get stuck in an area below 20% for more than 5 weeks. "

This is relevant because most of these consolidation patterns have resolved upwards. "7 of the previous 9 consolidations have resulted in a pump," the analyst wrote.

That said, in the past two years, 77% of the cases where Bitcoin looked like it did see prices "pumped".

BTC area analysis by the crypto trader / data analyst Data Dater (@datadater on Twitter). Diagram from

The last such long consolidation took place, for example, from November to December 2019. It preceded a pump from $ 7,000 to $ 10,500 in two months.

That doesn't mean the current range will resolve higher, but bulls seem to be in control as the BitMEX futures premium remains relatively neutral as Bitcoin holds crucial support.

It may be a Wyckoff top

Taking market volume into account, some have argued that the latest price action follows a pattern from the textbook.

As previously reported by NewsBTC, analyst Adam Li found that Bitcoin's recent consolidation is almost identical to the late technical analyst Richard Wyckoff's Wyckoff distribution scheme.

Bitcoin price

The essence of the argument revolves around the volume that has declined since the first high of ~ $ 10,000 in early May.

There's a 77% Chance Bitcoin Surges Higher Out of Its 20% Range: Historical Analysis
Price tags: xbtusd, btcusd, btcusdt
Featured Iamge from Shutterstock

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