The coronavirus epidemic in Brazil is still under control, according to a report by imperial researchers.
The results suggest that the transfer rate or R number is still over 1 in all states.
The team's latest study, Report 21, from the WHO Collaboration Center for Infectious Disease Modeling within the MRC Center for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analysis (J-IDEA), Imperial College London in collaboration with the Imperial Department of Mathematics. provides estimates of COVID-19 cases and transmission in Brazil.
The Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team researchers also estimated that after intervention, the Brazilian R number dropped significantly by 54 percent.
Levels of infection
The first case in Brazil was reported on February 25th, Brazil has become the epicenter for COVID-19 in South America.
The number of infections reported has more than doubled in the last 10 days. The country currently reports more than 135,000 cases and 9,000 deaths.
Of the 16 countries analyzed, five countries account for 81% of all reported deaths. Brazilian state and city officials have ordered extensive public health measures (so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions or NPIs) to reduce the transmission of COVID-19.
The team examined the five states with the highest number of deaths in Brazil and estimates that infection rates among the population range from 3.3% in São Paulo to 10.6% in the Amazon.
After the introduction of NPIs such as school closings and a decrease in population mobility, the authors estimate that the number of reproductions has dropped significantly.
In all 16 countries analyzed, however, the number of reproductions remains above one, which indicates that the epidemic is not yet controlled and will continue to increase.
These results suggest that further measures are needed to limit the spread and prevent health system overload.
Virus spread "not under control"
Dr. Thomas Mellan of the School of Public Health said: "We estimate that the number of reproductions is greater than one, which means that the spread of the virus in Brazil is not under control."
Dr. Henrique Helfer Hoeltgebaum from the Department of Mathematics said: "Depending on the current mobility patterns in Brazil, we find that the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is still not under control."
Dr. Swapnil Mishrafrom the School of Public Health said, "Our analysis clearly shows that Brazilian government measures have had an impact on reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. At the same time, however, we see that the epidemic in Brazil is still not under control and is spreading. We hope that Brazil can take further measures to curb the spread of the pandemic. "
Since the advent of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) in December 2019, the Imperial College's COVID-19 response team has followed a policy to immediately share research on the evolving pandemic.