Cointelegraph previously reported earlier today that "Bitcoin (BTC) price was the strongest second quarter performance in history despite a surprising crash to $ 3,750 on March 13th." Skew data also shows that Bitcoin currently has a quarterly return of 42.39%. The digital asset remains the leader for 2020 with a return of 27.31%.
Macro assets since the beginning of the year return%. Source: Skew
Data from on-chain analytics provider glassnode also showed that since the crash on Black Thursday, the total number of Bitcoin whales has risen above the 2017 high to 1,800 in the past 3 months.
Another positive signal for investors' sentiment towards Bitcoin is a recent survey by crypto custodian Bitcoin IRA, which shows that 43% of the platform's customers expect Bitcoin prices to exceed $ 15,000 by the end of 2020.
After a survey of 300 customers, the custody provider found that 57% of participants confirmed that they bought and held crypto assets as a long-term investment.
Each of these data points underscores the growing optimistic sentiment regarding the Bitcoin price, although the short-term price movement shows this Top crypto asset Trade in a neutral zone.
The Bitcoin price continues to consolidate
BTC USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
At the time of writing, the price remains trapped between the 20-MA and the centerline of a descending channel. The $ 9,200 to $ 9,550 resistance cluster remains a hurdle for overcoming the digital asset.
As already explained by Cointelegraph Markets, the Bollinger bands for 4 hours and the daily time frame show that consolidation is taking place and Bitcoin is making higher lows in the daily time frame despite the relatively flat trading volume.
In a recently released Bitcoin market update for customers Delphi Digital pointed out that "Bitcoin was trading in a relatively narrow range last month, spending much of the time between low $ 9,000 and $ 10,000."
BTC-USD vs. Volatility realized for 30 days. Source: Delphi Digital, Bloomberg
The research group also noted that "BTC's 30-day volatility has dropped to its lowest level of the year, which historically preceded significant price movements when volume returns."
BTC-USD vs. intraday price range. Source: Delphi Digital, Coinbase, Gemini
Delphi Digital also found that intraday volatility declined as bitcoin price consolidated between a major overhead resistance and a key underlying support zone, suggesting a major change in direction is imminent.
Volatility, COVID-19 and correlation
As the corona virus pandemic caused a sharp correction in the stock markets in early March 2020, Bitcoin price movements followed those of traditional markets. The strong recovery in the BTC price from $ 3,750 to $ 10,350 occurred in parallel with the V-shaped recovery currently seen in the S&P 500 and Dow.
Crypto investors are currently keenly interested in whether the short-term correlation between asset classes will persist or whether decoupling will take place.
In private comments with Cointelegraph, Kevin Kelly, Delphi Digital market analyst said:
“Historically, the index ended the following quarter in positive territory, if the S&P 500 has gained 15% or more in any calendar quarter (9 before) in the past 80 years. Now I would say that a positive Q3 for the SPX is anything but guaranteed, but still a remarkable value, especially if you expect BTC to continue to act in line with riskier asset classes in the short term. "
Regarding stock market volatility and its impact on Bitcoin price developments, Kelly said the following:
“If stock market volatility remains high (or above historical averages), I would expect the correlation between stocks and BTC to remain relatively high as well. For example, in the past, large peaks in the VIX coincided with significant sell-offs in BTC. So if we saw another violent leg on stocks, I would expect BTC to suffer in the short term as well. "
Equity and crypto investors continue to be concerned, with good reason, that the markets are under the sharp rise in COVID-19 infections in a number of U.S. states, the recent ban on Americans from traveling to EU countries, and the The effects of his will have suffered on the US airline and the global tourism industry.
According to Kelly:
“When you think about it, the main short-term catalysts are pretty similar for both, i.e. H. Historical political reactions to a major economic collapse. In addition, currency devaluation can actually put a bid on stocks if demand for scarcity and real assets increases. "
Analysts are generally assuming that Bitcoin price could hit recent lows in the coming weeks if the $ 8,800 support collapses. Despite this slight short-term downward trend, BTC's market structure and optimistic investor sentiment suggest that the digital asset remains well positioned for further earnings in the third quarter.