100 SMA Holds The Key For Next Bitcoin Rally Above $12K: Here’s Why

Bitcoin found support near $ 11,120 and started an upward move against the US dollar. However, BTC needs to break $ 11,650 and the 100-hour SMA to start a new rally.

  • Bitcoin is slowly recovering from the $ 11,150 and $ 11,200 support levels.
  • The price is facing some hurdles near the $ 11,600 and $ 11,650 levels.
  • A large bearish trendline is forming on the hourly chart of the BTC / USD pair (data feed from Kraken) with resistance near USD 11,620.
  • The pair will need to break the $ 11,650 resistance and 100 hour simple moving average to start a new rally.

Bitcoin price faces hurdles

Recently, Bitcoin price fell sharply below the USD 11,500 support level against the US dollar. BTC even traded below the $ 11,200 support level and was below the 100-hour simple moving average.

A swing low was formed near $ 11,130 and the price began a slow and steady recovery wave. It rebounded above the $ 11,200 and $ 11,400 levels. There was a break above the 23.6% fib retracement level of the recent drop from the high of $ 12,084 to the low of $ 11,130.

Bitcoin price even surged above the $ 11,500 pivot level, but is facing strong resistance near $ 11,650. A large bearish trendline is also forming on the hourly chart of the BTC / USD pair with resistance near USD 11,620.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin price trades above $11,200. Source: TradingView.com

The trendline is close to the 100-hour SMA, preventing an upside break above the $ 11,650 level. Price is also struggling to close above the 50% fib retracement level of the recent drop from $ 12,084 to $ 11,130.

If there is a successful break above the trendline, the 100 hour SMA and $ 11,650, the price should start a strong rally. The next resistance is near the $ 11,800 level, above which the bulls are likely to seek more bullish moves above the $ 12,000 and $ 12,050 levels.

New decline in BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to hit the trendline, the 100-hour SMA, and $ 11,650, there is a possibility of another decline. Initial support is seen near the USD 11,400 level.

The main support is now near the $ 11,120 level, below which there is a risk of falling sharply below the $ 11,000 support. In that case, the price could even test USD 10,500 (as explained in yesterday's analysis based on the daily chart).

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is moving into the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC / USD is currently falling below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $ 11,400, followed by $ 11,120.

Main Resistance Levels – $ 11,650, $ 11,800, and $ 12,000.

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